Coming Soon: Earls Court By Election Results Analysis

Originally posted at:  http://barryphelps.posterous.com/coming-soon-earls-court-by-election-results-a

This blog will be providing an analysis of the results in the Earls Court by election when they are available.  Of interest, will be of course, if the Conservatives hold the seat, and by how many votes, whether their vote has slumped, and whether the Liberal Democrat challenge was just a lot of hot air and needless felling of trees to provide their deluge of leaflets.  It will also be interesting to see if Labour come in second or third place, and whether the Labour vote has increased, suggesting Lib Dem defections to Labour, or decreased, suggesting that there might have been some tactical voting by Labour supporters, or maybe that Labour voters just stayed at home.  In a council by election, turn out would be expected to be low.  But in the special circumstances of the by election in Earls Court, with the resignation of the pervert Phelps and the strong campaign mounted by the Lib Dems, it would not be surprising if the turn out will be slightly higher than expected.  This by election is also a miniature test of popularity for the Lib Dems, whose support has slumped nationally since joining the Conservatives in the government.  A disappointing result for the Lib Dems would add to the increasing bad news for Lib Dems across the country who are doing poorly in by elections.  It would also increase tensions within the party.  One of the writers on our team at this blog has had considerable past experience of involvement in the Social Democratic Party, which broke away from the Labour Party in 1981 and subsequently merged with the Liberals to form the Lib Dems.  Although no longer politically active, this writer can provide some insight into the tensions within the Lib Dems arising from that social democratic element which still retains Labour party values and will find Coalition with the Conservatives increasingly intolerable.  So in a wider context, a poor result for the Lib Dems will feed into these increasing tensions within the party. Print this post