Originally posted at: http://barryphelps.posterous.com/plus-ca-change-plus-cest-la-meme-chose
Linda Wade, the Liberal Democrat candidate, has won the Earls Court by election. This blog acknowledges that this will be a good result for her and the Liberal Democrats, who invested much time and energy in their campaign. It also means that all those trees were not cut down in vain to provide their deluge of leaflets. The Liberal Democrats were highly motivated in this election and although the results show a major improvement on their vote in the May elections, it should also be borne in mind that the turnout in the by election fell to 24 per cent from 41.8 per cent in the borough elections in May.
The Liberal Democrats were also helped by the Conservatives by means of their poor choice of candidate and their complacency. The choice of Malcolm Spalding as their candidate was a disaster for the Conservatives. He had stood in May as an Independent, and joined the Conservative Party two days before being selected as its candidate in the by election. This candidate lacked credibility. It also seems that there were a few Conservatives who were unhappy about Phelps' resignation, wrongly ascribing this to some conspiracy by senior Conservatives, and how much this affected the Conservative vote it is difficult to say. But either through staying at home or voting for Arbuthnot, some of these discontented Conservatives might have helped hand victory to the Liberal Democrats. But this blog believes that by far the main reason for the Conservative loss of the by election was their complacency in not putting up a sustained fight for the seat. There were some leaflets distributed to households, but they were few in comparison to the regularity of the leaflets put out almost daily by the Liberal Democrats. We noticed some Conservatives in the summer were engaged in canvassing on one evening, but this seemed to not be sustained. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand were canvassing on an annoyingly regular basis. Either the Conservatives were complacent in thinking that they would hold the seat given their previous majorities over the Liberal Democrats, or they did not have the manpower. Having said this, the Conservatives lost the seat by a not too large a number of votes, and are in a position to win it back at the next Council elections. This will be easier as the Liberal Democrats will not have the resources to concentrate in Earls Court, and they will not have the benefit of bussing in activists and having high profile politicans visit such as Simon Hughes, MP.
The Labour vote collapsed but there is not much evidence of tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats. This blog believes that the collapse in the Labour vote was more due to Labour voters staying at home. The Labour Party was invisible in Earls Court, with, to our knowledge, no leaflets or canvassing, and yet still managed to get 151 votes! The Labour Party vote would have been better if the party had conducted a campaign so that people would at least have known there was a candidate!
Sir Merrick Cockell, the Leader of the Council, can take comfort from the by election results. The Conservatives held Cremorne, even though only just. They lost Earls Court, but in Linda Wade there will be no threat to his regime, and she can become a happy appendage to it alongside the other Liberal Democrat councillors. Linda Wade's friend, Jennifer Ware, is secure on the Standards Committee, just as it would have been if Spalding had won. Ware has done nothing to challenge the Cockell regime, indeed she is just a part of it.
The issue of a Liberal Democrat split is still important, although their victory in Earls Court gives a good result among a rash of failures to win in other by elections and a collapse in their support nationally. It is the view of this blog that as the tensions within the Liberal Democrats increase as the Coalition policies become more unpopular with the voters, there will be a split in this party. It is difficult to say how large the split will be, but there is already a loss of members and some councillors nationally, as well as a massive decline in support for the party. The ideological tensions within the Liberal Democrats between the social democrats and the free market liberals will become increasingly apparent as the Coalition proceeds with its policies which threaten to cause massive social upheaval as the welfare state and National Health Service are dismantled in the name of cuts to public expenditure.
In this context, we have a Liberal Democrat councillor who will be joining her Conservative colleagues in the voting lobbies at the Town Hall to implement those policies of their government as they affect the people of Earls Court and the borough. The fact that Earls Court has a Liberal Democrat instead of a Conservative makes no difference. In virtually every respect, Linda Wade will be no different to her Conservative colleagues. There may be a change of party but there will be no change in how things are done at the Town Hall.
Linda Wade, the Liberal Democrat candidate, has won the Earls Court by election. This blog acknowledges that this will be a good result for her and the Liberal Democrats, who invested much time and energy in their campaign. It also means that all those trees were not cut down in vain to provide their deluge of leaflets. The Liberal Democrats were highly motivated in this election and although the results show a major improvement on their vote in the May elections, it should also be borne in mind that the turnout in the by election fell to 24 per cent from 41.8 per cent in the borough elections in May.
The Liberal Democrats were also helped by the Conservatives by means of their poor choice of candidate and their complacency. The choice of Malcolm Spalding as their candidate was a disaster for the Conservatives. He had stood in May as an Independent, and joined the Conservative Party two days before being selected as its candidate in the by election. This candidate lacked credibility. It also seems that there were a few Conservatives who were unhappy about Phelps' resignation, wrongly ascribing this to some conspiracy by senior Conservatives, and how much this affected the Conservative vote it is difficult to say. But either through staying at home or voting for Arbuthnot, some of these discontented Conservatives might have helped hand victory to the Liberal Democrats. But this blog believes that by far the main reason for the Conservative loss of the by election was their complacency in not putting up a sustained fight for the seat. There were some leaflets distributed to households, but they were few in comparison to the regularity of the leaflets put out almost daily by the Liberal Democrats. We noticed some Conservatives in the summer were engaged in canvassing on one evening, but this seemed to not be sustained. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand were canvassing on an annoyingly regular basis. Either the Conservatives were complacent in thinking that they would hold the seat given their previous majorities over the Liberal Democrats, or they did not have the manpower. Having said this, the Conservatives lost the seat by a not too large a number of votes, and are in a position to win it back at the next Council elections. This will be easier as the Liberal Democrats will not have the resources to concentrate in Earls Court, and they will not have the benefit of bussing in activists and having high profile politicans visit such as Simon Hughes, MP.
The Labour vote collapsed but there is not much evidence of tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats. This blog believes that the collapse in the Labour vote was more due to Labour voters staying at home. The Labour Party was invisible in Earls Court, with, to our knowledge, no leaflets or canvassing, and yet still managed to get 151 votes! The Labour Party vote would have been better if the party had conducted a campaign so that people would at least have known there was a candidate!
Sir Merrick Cockell, the Leader of the Council, can take comfort from the by election results. The Conservatives held Cremorne, even though only just. They lost Earls Court, but in Linda Wade there will be no threat to his regime, and she can become a happy appendage to it alongside the other Liberal Democrat councillors. Linda Wade's friend, Jennifer Ware, is secure on the Standards Committee, just as it would have been if Spalding had won. Ware has done nothing to challenge the Cockell regime, indeed she is just a part of it.
The issue of a Liberal Democrat split is still important, although their victory in Earls Court gives a good result among a rash of failures to win in other by elections and a collapse in their support nationally. It is the view of this blog that as the tensions within the Liberal Democrats increase as the Coalition policies become more unpopular with the voters, there will be a split in this party. It is difficult to say how large the split will be, but there is already a loss of members and some councillors nationally, as well as a massive decline in support for the party. The ideological tensions within the Liberal Democrats between the social democrats and the free market liberals will become increasingly apparent as the Coalition proceeds with its policies which threaten to cause massive social upheaval as the welfare state and National Health Service are dismantled in the name of cuts to public expenditure.
In this context, we have a Liberal Democrat councillor who will be joining her Conservative colleagues in the voting lobbies at the Town Hall to implement those policies of their government as they affect the people of Earls Court and the borough. The fact that Earls Court has a Liberal Democrat instead of a Conservative makes no difference. In virtually every respect, Linda Wade will be no different to her Conservative colleagues. There may be a change of party but there will be no change in how things are done at the Town Hall.
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